If current trends hold, China is on track to become the most influential force in global publishing within the next decade. Its rise is powered by domestic growth, a focused expansion strategy, rapid advances in scholarly publishing and the early adoption of digital technology. This shift will influence both what the world reads and how it reads it.
China’s book publishing market is already one of the largest in the world. Hundreds of millions of active readers, combined with growing disposable income, have increased demand for both print and digital formats.
Platforms such as Dangdang and JD Books continue to expand their catalogues, while audiobook and mobile reading apps are gaining massive traction. The fact that physical bookstores still thrive alongside digital reading shows how broad and diverse the market has become.
With so much consumer activity, Chinese publishers have the financial room to experiment with formats, marketing strategies and new distribution channels. These conditions allow publishers to test and refine models that other markets struggle to attempt. Over the next decade, this domestic strength will further boost China’s exports of content and its influence on global trends.
While the market has faced challenges, such as fierce price wars and a slowdown in the children’s book segment due to demographic changes, its capacity for innovation remains strong.
Chinese publishers are quickly adapting to the digital age, with short-video e-commerce platforms like Douyin, TikTok’s mainland equivalent, becoming major sales channels. This rapid adoption of new retail models gives Chinese publishers an agility that outpaces their Western counterparts, enabling them to reach vast, digitally native audiences instantaneously.
Furthermore, a growing sense of cultural pride is driving demand for high-quality, original content that blends traditional Chinese narratives with modern themes. This push for home-grown IP is already yielding success, with publishers actively pursuing copyright exports and international cooperation deals.
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As the quality of Chinese literature and non-fiction improves, the international market will see a steady increase in translated works, shifting the global cultural focus for mainstream reading. And as artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly central to publishing, China’s advantage is likely to widen.
Major companies are investing heavily in AI-assisted editing, translation and market analysis. These tools help them identify strong manuscripts more quickly, tailor recommendations to readers and reduce production costs.
Strategic trade publishingThe internationalization of Chinese trade publishing is a clear part of a broader, government-backed soft power strategy. China has openly articulated its national goal of becoming a “cultural powerhouse” by 2035, and the export of cultural products, including book translations and copyright, will support this ambition.
This is not a slow, organic process, but a strategic one executed by major state-owned conglomerates like the China Publishing Group Corporation and the China International Publishing Group. These giants are leveraging their significant resources to establish an international presence through various means.
Organizations such as Foreign Languages Press and New World Press, subsidiaries of China International Communications Group, publish works in multiple foreign languages, including English, French, German, Spanish, Japanese, Arabic and others, covering China’s contemporary society, literature and cultural classics.
This state-supported model promotes China’s preferred narratives abroad through distribution in over 180 countries via exports, co-publishing and partnerships to foster global understanding.
In addition, Chinese publishers are acquiring rights to international titles at a rapid rate. They are also forming strategic partnerships with global houses to co-publish works that appeal to multilingual audiences. These moves strengthen China’s cultural reach and allow its publishers to shape the global conversation.
Over the next decade, the world can expect to see more Chinese narratives circulating in mainstream markets, particularly across Asia, Africa and Latin America, where China’s diplomatic and economic ties are strongest.
Scholarly publishing surgeWhile trade publishing expands steadily abroad, an even more transformative shift is taking place in China’s academic sector. China’s relentless and enormous investment in research and development has already established it as a scientific and technological powerhouse.
Evidence of this rise is already clear: China has surpassed the US in the number of highly cited academic papers globally, backed by staggering growth in annual research output. This massive output requires a publishing infrastructure to match.
Open access is another area where China is moving quickly. Policy shifts have encouraged institutions to build repositories, share data and adopt more transparent research practices.
Combined with large-scale investment in STEM fields, China is fast becoming a research powerhouse. By 2030, it is foreseen that Chinese academic publishers will have an even larger share of global influence, particularly in engineering, medicine and environmental science.
The Chinese government is also pushing for the creation of world-class, domestically managed academic journals to reduce dependence on foreign entities. This strategic push is accelerated by massive investment in digital publishing and knowledge platforms, allowing these local publishers to modernize and scale rapidly.
By expanding its own global-standard academic infrastructure, China is steadily transitioning from being a follower of the Western academic model to a major competitor.
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Publishing is a form of soft power, and China recognizes its value. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative have cultural components that include book translation projects, reading festivals and academic exchanges.
Through these programs, Chinese publishers build relationships with emerging markets and strengthen their presence in regions where Western publishers have historically dominated.
These partnerships often result in co-published titles or long-term distribution agreements that place Chinese books in new markets. They also encourage local authors and researchers to collaborate with Chinese counterparts. Over time, these relationships will shape what readers around the world encounter as global knowledge and culture.
China’s publishing sector is entering a phase where ambition and capability are finally aligned. Its vast market, investment in technology and long-term cultural strategy give it momentum that few others can rival.
In the coming decade, this combination will shape how stories are produced, how research is shared and how cultural influence circulates across borders. If current trajectories hold, China will lead because it has built the foundations to achieve it. The question for global publishers is not whether this shift is coming, but how quickly they can adapt to it.
Zulkifli Musa is an editor for the Penang-based Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), where he has managed academic journals and digital publishing initiatives for the scholarly publisher. He serves in the organization’s marketing department and oversees its AI strategic direction.
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