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By Amir Daftari and Shane CroucherShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberThere is mounting speculation that U.S. President Donald Trump will soon strike Venezuela and depose President Nicolas Maduro under his war against drug cartels operating in the Caribbean. But the prediction markets are skeptical that such drastic action is imminent.
Trump said he had spoken to Maduro on a call but gave no details of the conversation. He had earlier declared Venezuelan airspace closed amid a large-scale U.S. military build-up in the Caribbean as his forces strike boats he says are carrying illegal narcotics to American shores. Trump said land strikes should be expected "very soon".
Maduro has denied Trump's accusations that he oversees the Cartel de los Soles, one of the drug cartels designated as foreign terrorists by the U.S., and that his regime benefits from lucrative kickbacks. Caracas says Trump's U.S. is motivated by a colonialist grab for Venezuelan natural resources, and vowed to resist any American military action against it.
Despite the dramatic escalation in tensions, the prediction market Polymarket only gives a 20 percent chance that Maduro will be ousted in 2025, though there is a 39 percent chance of it happening by March 31, 2026, bettors say.
Kalshi, another prediction market, gives Maduro a 23 percent chance of exiting in 2025. But over a longer period of time, Maduro's chances are looking much worse. Kalshi gives Maduro a 69 percent probability of exiting before 2027.
This is a developing article. Updates to follow.
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