Tennessee Special Election Could Be Kamala Harris' R...

By Andrew Stanton

Weekend Staff Writer

ShareNewsweek is a Trust Project member

A Democratic victory in the special election for Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District on Tuesday could be a "boost" to former Vice President Kamala Harris, more than a year after her loss to President Donald Trump.

Why It Matters

Voters will head to the polls on Tuesday to elect either Democratic state legislator Aftyn Behn or GOP veteran Matt Van Epps to the House of Representatives in a special election to replace former Representative Mark Green, who earlier this year left Congress for a private sector job. The district isn’t typically viewed as competitive—Trump carried it by about 22 points last November. But Democrats are hopeful that Behn could flip the seat, as the party has performed well in special elections this year, and recent polls show a close race.

The race has drawn national attention, including from both Trump and Harris, who returned to the campaign trail for the first time since last year to urge Democrats to vote in the special election. A Behn victory would deal a major blow to Trump and a victory to Harris, who has been speculated to be a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

What to Know

Turnout will be key to victory in the Tennessee special election. The district comprises parts of Nashville, Clarksville, and rural and suburban areas in central Tennessee. Democrats are hopeful that high turnout in Nashville will carry Behn across the finish line. But if turnout is higher in the more conservative areas, Republicans will be favored.

Harris and Trump have both been involved in the race.

Harris has not formally endorsed Behn but attended a canvassing event for Democrats in Nashville last month, urging her party to vote in the election, reported The New York Times. Harris spoke earlier that day at Fisk University, a historically Black college. While Harris was unable to defeat Trump last November, a candidate for whom Harris attended a canvassing event defeating a Trump-backed candidate in a conservative district could be a major loss for Republicans.

...

“This election is 14 days from today,” Harris said at the canvassing event, per The Times.

Behn also appeared at the event and emphasized the race as the “most competitive” in the country. Her campaign told The Nashville Banner, when asked why Harris did not endorse Behn by name, that her campaign “did not organize the event.”

Trump, meanwhile, has waded in on the race, backing Van Epps. In a Truth Social post on Sunday, he urged Republicans to “GET OUT AND VOTE” for him.

“Do not take this Race for granted. The Radical Left Democrats are spending a fortune to beat one of the best Candidates we’ve ever had, Matt Van Epps! You can win this Election for Matt. GET OUT AND VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!” Trump wrote.

A Behn victory could be a “boost” for Harris, John Geer, Vanderbilt Poll co-director and professor of political science, told Newsweek.

“I think it would be a boost for her for sure, but really, this election—it would be a serious setback for both for Trump," he said.

It would also be a "setback" for House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, as it would shrink the GOP's already thin majority in the House of Representatives, he said.

Harris’ decision to attend the canvassing event “speaks to the fact that this race is closer than people thought,” he said.

However, Kent Syler, a professor of political science at Middle Tennessee State University, said a Behn victory may have more limited implications for Harris.

“I’m sure the Behn campaign was honored to get the former vice president's endorsement,” he said. “But in all honesty, this election is about one person, and that's President Donald Trump.”

Midterms are referendums on the sitting president, he said. If Democrats make this a close race, it would be viewed as a sign of chilling approval toward the president ahead of the midterms, when Democrats are hoping to retake control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

If Behn breaks the mid-40s in terms of her share of the votes, it would suggest a continuation of the trend of Democratic overperformances, Syler said. That would add to the list of strong performances they could use to recruit strong candidates in more competitive districts ahead of next November, he said.

Anything above 45 percent would be “the cherry on top,” he added.

Republicans have been trying to make the race more about Behn and Democrats and less of a referendum on Trump, Geer said.

“If you take a look right now at Van Epps' advertisements, they're not talking about his ties to Trump. They're trying to attack Behn as a radical, or that Van Eppps is going to be really good at keeping costs down, which is of course the primary issue that the American public is now worried about is inflation, the cost of living,” he said.

In the primary, however, Van Epps was “wrapping himself in the MAGA flag,” he said.

What People Are Saying

Former Vice President Kamala Harris said at the canvassing event, per The Nashville Banner: “There are some powerful forces that are trying to suggest that folks are alone and without power, powerful forces that are trying to divide us and to tell folks that they don’t matter and their needs don’t matter. Well, we need to let them hear our voice and let them know that they’re going to have to be responsive. This is a moment where we reclaim this, our country.”

Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, wrote to X: "How much of a drag is Trump for House GOPers? Even in TN-07, a Trump +22 CD, none of the GOP ads have mentioned Trump or electing a Rep. to keep his agenda going. Instead, they all attack the Dem. Why does this matter? It means that R’s go into ‘26 in a purely defensive posture."

The Davidson County Democratic Party wrote in a November 20 post to X: “This week, Davidson County Democrats were honored to welcome Vice President Kamala Harris at our #TN07 canvass for Aftyn Behn for Congress!”

The MAGA Inc. PAC wrote in a November 19 post to X: “Kamala Harris’ visit to Tennessee says it all — Aftyn Behn is a typical radical liberal. Behn supports higher taxes and open borders. Tennessee is going to reject her agenda and elect Matt Van Epps to Congress.”

What Happens Next

Polls close in Tennessee at 7 p.m. local time. Forecasters give Republicans an edge heading into Election Day—both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as “Likely Republican.”

Polling points to a close race. An Emerson College poll showed her trailing by only 2 percentage points (49 percent to 47 percent) among likely voters, even after undecideds were pushed. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters from November 22-24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Request Reprint & LicensingSubmit CorrectionView Editorial & AI Guidelines