By Kate PlummerShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberThe proportion of people who disapprove of U.S. President Donald Trump is higher now than it was at a comparable point of his first term, pollster Nate Silver has said.
Writing on X, Silver, a statistician and political analyst, said that 55.9 percent disapproved of the president compared with 54.9 percent at a similar time in 2017.
Newsweek reached out to the White House to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.
Why It Matters
...Approval ratings are useful in gauging the public's response to Trump's policies and Trump's approval rating will affect how voters behave in the November 2026 midterm elections. Republicans have a narrow majority of 219 to 214 in the House of Representatives, so even losing a handful of seats could cost them their majority and impact the GOP's ability to push through its agenda.
What To Know
Silver, who founded 538, a website that offers opinion poll analysis, said that Trump's net approval rating found that 55.9 percent disapprove of Trump, one percent more than the proportion who disapproved of him at a similar moment toward the end of 2017, the first year of his first term.
"His net approval rating is still slightly better than his 1st term," he wrote on X on Saturday. "But the trajectory remains negative. Epstein/the economy/general fatigue with Trump is outweighing any post-shutdown recovery so far."
Trump has been hit with a backlash over his handling of files associated with disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. His administration initially pledged to release documents linked to investigations into the convicted sex offender then backtracked. Congress has now voted for their full release.
Meanwhile, Trump's economic policies including tariffs have caused disquiet among the American population while the recent government shutdown affected key services and confidence in the administration.
It comes amid other broader negative polling about the president. A recent poll by The Economist/YouGov found Trump’s approval rating at its lowest level since he returned to office in January, 39 percent of people approving of the job he is doing, and 58 percent disapproving, a net approval rating of -19 points.
Meanwhile, a Fox News poll found this week that 76 percent of voters view the economy negatively. This makes Trump less popular on the economy than former President Joe Biden. At the end of his presidency in 2024, Fox News polling showed that 70 percent of people viewed the economy negatively.
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., told Newsweek: "The Trump presidency this time round is none of the novelty and all of the stress. It's still a soap opera, but one with a nasty edge from Epstein to ICE. Any politician has only one chance to make a first impression and Trump's has been and gone.
"In his first term, he remained interesting as no one had any idea what he'd do. In this second term, his unpredictability is predictable but is also proving ineffective. MAGA flocked to Trump in 2024 because they still believed he would make their lives great. The remainder of the loose alliance who brought him to power did so in the expectation he would deliver on his economic promises.
"Largely he hasn't, and if Thanksgiving and the Holidays turn out to be an unexpected drain on the average American's finances, they're unlikely to boost the president's polling into 2026. That opens the door to the Democrats in the midterms and Trump may already be on the slide to a lame duck conclusion to his time in the White House."
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social earlier this month: "So many Fake Polls are being shown by the Radical Left Media, all slanted heavily toward Democrats and Far Left Wingers…Fake News will never change, they are evil and corrupt but, as I look around my beautiful surroundings, I say to myself, 'Oh, look, I’m sitting in the Oval Office!'"
What Happens Next
As his term in office continues, Trump's popularity will likely fluctuate. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 2026.
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