By Daniel OrtonShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberGavin Newsom's combative approach to taking on President Donald Trump looks to be paying off as Democrats search for a standard-bearer to win back the White House in 2028, if one data tracker is to be believed.
The California governor is polling ahead of a selection of potential Democratic rivals in five out of 10 hypothetical state-based 2028 primary polls, according to RaceToTheWhiteHouse.com, and is tied with New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in one other. Former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads in the remaining four states that have been polled, three years out from the next presidential election.
Newsweek emailed Newsom's office for comment outside of regular working hours.
Why It Matters
Early state-level polling offers a glimpse into the ideological and strategic battles that could define the Democratic Party’s future. Newsom’s edge in multiple states suggests that voters may favor a high-profile, combative figure to counter Trump-era politics and Vice President JD Vance’s expected candidacy.
These numbers also highlight the absence of a clear front-runner, signaling a potentially fractured primary where regional appeal and national name recognition will matter more than ever. How Democrats coalesce—or fail to—around a nominee could shape not just the 2028 race, but the party’s identity for the next decade.
What To Know
Newsom is currently ahead in his home state, as well as Alaska, Ohio, Maine and Nevada, where he enjoys his biggest polling lead of 18 percentage points. The California Democrat had the support of 17 percent of respondents in a Vermont poll, the same as the more progressive Ocasio-Cortez, with Buttigieg only one point behind.
Christian Grose, a professor of political science and international relations at the University of Southern California, previously told Newsweek that Newsom's "bold stances on redistricting" and "aggressive social media usage" helped improve his image among Democrats.
Newsom spearheaded California’s Proposition 50 redistricting push, framing it as a defense of democracy against GOP gerrymandering, and celebrated its passage as a major win for the party. At the same time, Newsom has embraced a Trump-style social media offensive—posting all-caps, meme-heavy content to troll the former president and energize the base. His fiery opposition to Trump’s deployment of troops during ICE raids and his climate advocacy at COP30 have further cemented his image as a bold, unapologetic leader.
Grose cautioned though that Newsom will need to work on making "inroads with independent voters," if he has a shot at the White House.
He fares less well in the south, coming third behind Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez in North Carolina and Florida. In Texas, he is 2.1 percentage points behind leading candidate Buttigieg. Biden's former transportation secretary and 2020 rival for the Democratic nomination also leads in New Hampshire.
At the national level, it is a close race between Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris, with Buttigieg a distant third, according to a polling average by RaceToTheWhiteHouse.com. The governor of California, whose second and final term ends in 2027, is ahead 23.6 percent to Harris' 21.5 percent. The erstwhile mayor of South Bend, Indiana, garners just 9.4 percent support.
...What People Are Saying
Democratic Hawaii Governor Josh Green said last week: "If Gavin is ultimately going to win over America, he will have to also adopt some of the conciliatory, collegial rhetoric—or even policy ideas—that others are going for."
Bob Shrum, a veteran Democratic strategist, said of Newsom in an interview with the Financial Times: "He's fighting fire with fire and I think he's had a big impact. It's born out of frustration with the president and a determination to see Democrats find new ways to fight back."
President Donald Trump, in a post on Truth Social in August, said: "Gavin Newscum is way down in the polls. He is viewed as the man who is destroying the once Great State of California. I will save California!!!"
What Happens Next
Newsom has said he will make a decision on running in 2028 after the midterms next year, and other contenders are likely to follow suit.
It could be the most wide open Democratic primary season since 2020, a year which saw nearly 30 candidates throw their hats into the ring.
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