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By Newsweek EditorsShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberAs two turkeys made the media rounds this week ahead of getting pardoned by President Donald Trump on Tuesday, Americans flocked to the stores to load up on Thanksgiving goodies—filled with anxiety over rising grocery costs and the overall state of the economy heading into the holiday season. Despite that pensiveness, the price of the centerpiece, the bird itself, has helped deliver the cheapest Thanksgiving in four years, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), which says that the “classic dinner for 10” in 2025 averages $55.18, which is down 5 percent from last year and the lowest since 2021.
Common Knowledge
Both Democrats and Republicans raced to claim the carve-up. The White House touted retailer promos as proof of a strong economy: “Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal costs 25% less than last year—with its lowest turkey price since 2019,” and “Aldi’s Thanksgiving meal … lowest price since 2019,” the administration proclaimed, citing sub-$4-per-person bundles. Trump said that Democrats’ “affordability” critique was “dead.”
Democrats pushed back, calling the victory lap selective—and saying tariffs and corporate behavior still push up costs. “Families paid even more last month for basics like groceries … President Trump promised to lower costs on ‘day one,’ but instead his chaotic tariffs … are driving prices higher,” said Senator Elizabeth Warren. House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was more blunt, calling Trump’s tariffs "reckless" and vowing to “push back” on policies he said make grocery receipts higher.
And fact-checkers have also taken aim at the White House claims, saying it is a fact that Walmart’s meal is cheaper this year—but noting that it offers fewer items and different products.
Uncommon Knowledge
Here’s the tension that actually explains this year’s paradox: Supply says "up," retail says "down."
On the supply side, highly pathogenic avian influenza, otherwise known as the bird flu, stunted output. Fewer birds should mean pricier birds. On paper.
On the retail side, grocers made the turkey a billboard. The AFBF survey—volunteer shoppers in all 50 states and Puerto Rico—found the average 16-pound turkey averaging $21.50 (down 16 percent), enough to yank the entire “classic dinner” down by an average of 5 percent. That’s roughly $5.52 per person—and the third straight annual decline following 2022’s $64.05 peak. You can thank competition, early contracting and the ancient art of the Thanksgiving “doorbuster.”
But the basket hides a fight between actual and felt inflation. AFBF does not include stacked coupons and other offers that so many households could use to do better than $55.18 if they lean into promos, yet the consumer price index “food-at-home” gauge is still running a couple percent above last year, and families have noticed where the discounts aren’t—primarily in produce, specialty items and weather-sensitive crops. That’s why your receipt can deliver both stories at once—“cheaper overall,” while still “more expensive in places I care about.”
There’s also the optics trap. Politicians love retailer bundles because they produce tidy sound bites. The White House blog cites Walmart, Lidl and Aldi as proof that “Americans are paying less this Thanksgiving.” Fact-checkers reply, correctly, that these aren’t apples-to-apples baskets and often swap national brands for store brands or fewer items. Both statements can be true because they’re talking about different baskets—but don’t mistake a $40 kit for a universal 25 percent price cut.
So is Thanksgiving cheaper than you think? Yes—if you let supermarkets lure you with a cut-rate bird and you’re willing to swap brands and the turkey is the star of the markdown show. But two realities can live in the same shopping cart: The mean price can fall while the experience of paying more for sweet potatoes and greens feels worse.
If you want the most honest answer at the register: Buy the bird where it’s a billboard, build sides from scratch and ignore anyone waving a percentage without showing you the basket from which it came. That is what will actually make your Thanksgiving cheaper.
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