By Rowan Fisher-ShottonShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberOhio State enters "The Game" unbeaten and ranked No. 1 in the nation, with an 11-0 overall ledger and an 8-0 Big Ten mark.
The Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring defense (allowing just 7.6 points per game) and score at a high clip (37.9 points per game, 11th in the country).
In Ryan Day’s eighth season, the Buckeyes’ balance and depth have been consistent themes all year, and public models generally peg them as the stronger team on paper.
Yet, college football analyst Josh Pate delivered a contrarian pick on Tuesday, boldly predicting that Michigan will win and cover, despite models and books heavily favoring the Buckeyes.
"I think Ohio State's the better team," Pate said. "The model thinks Ohio State wins and wins comfortably. Everything about my breakdown of the game leans me towards Ohio State. I couldn't care less until further notice. Michigan will win this game. Michigan covers. Michigan money line."
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Michigan is 9-2 (7-1 Big Ten) and ranked No. 15 in the AP Top 25, just on the edge of the College Football Playoff.
After finishing 8-5 a year ago, this season reflects steady progress under third-year head coach Sherrone Moore.
Freshman QB Bryce Underwood has thrown for 2,166 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and five picks, along with 322 rushing yards and five rushing scores, while RBs Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes each have over 850 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs.
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Early market consensus opened Ohio State as a near two‑touchdown favorite; FanDuel showed Ohio State around -10.5 on Tuesday, while other books listed similar spreads and moneyline gaps.
As a result, almost everybody has leaned in favor of the Buckeyes to win, and many have chosen them to cover as well.
Pate acknowledged his model favors Ohio State but said he’s taking Michigan because of the rivalry’s history of "void of reason" outcomes and his own track record of being burned by Michigan surprises.
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