By Kate PlummerShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberRepublicans have urged people to vote in the Tennessee special election, suggesting they may be concerned the party is poised to lose.
Aftyn Behn, a state legislator, is standing against Republican Matt Van Epps to fill a seat left vacant by former Representative Mark Green, who resigned from the House earlier this year.
According to a new Emerson College/The Hill survey, Van Epps is leading Democrat Behn 48 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, with five percent undecided and two percent backing third-party candidates. Previous polling had suggested Van Epps had a more commanding lead.
On social media, GOP figures, including President Donald Trump, urged Republicans to vote for Van Epps after the poll was published.
..."Public polling in a low-turnout special election around the Holidays is unreliable and inaccurate," a Van Epps spokesperson told Newsweek. "What is clear: there are more Republicans than Democrats in this district and all efforts remain focused on reaching, motivating, and turning out Republicans to vote today or on Tuesday, December 2nd. The smaller number of Democrats in this district are intensely fired up, but as more Republicans tune in and understand the stakes of the race and the craziness of the Democrat nominee, momentum has shifted toward Trump-endorsed Matt Van Epps. He will win on Tuesday, December 2nd."
Behn said in a statement provided to Newsweek: "Matt Van Epps and Washington Republicans are panicking because they know Tennessee families are suffering under their failed economic policies that are raising their costs, while they lower taxes for their billionaire donors. My affordability message — to lower grocery costs, housing costs, and health care costs — is resonating with voters of all political stripes, which is why this race is now tied."
Why It Matters
If the Democrats win the election, it will represent a remarkable partisan shift in the area that backed Trump by more than 20 percentage points in 2024.
Meanwhile, Republicans have a slim majority in the House of Representatives with 219 seats to the Democrats' 213, so every seat matters. If the Democrats win this seat and others, it will be more difficult for the Trump administration to push through its agenda in the last two years of his administration.
What To Know
The new polling showed that 5 percent of people were undecided and 2 percent backed third-party candidates. The poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. When leaning voters are included, the gap narrowed to 49–47 percent.
Those who reported voting early backed Behn 56 percent to 42 percent, while those who plan to vote on Election Day backed Van Epps 51 percent to 39 percent.
Republican figures raised concerns about the race. Eric Daugherty, a conservative journalist, wrote on X: "Republicans MUST win this. Big issues if we don't."
On Truth Social, Trump implored "all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps."
"You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement," he added, saying that Van Epps would "never let you down."
Speaking to Newsweek, Calvin Jillson, a politics professor at Southern Methodist University in Texas, said: “Republicans from Trump on down are intently focused on the upcoming special election in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district. This is a bad sign in and of itself because Republican Mark Green won the district by 21 points and Trump won statewide by 30 points in 2024.
“Democrat overperformance in the Virginia and New Jersey governor races a few weeks ago, and recent polling suggesting a tightening race in the 7th, have Democrats hopeful and Republicans fearful. Republicans should pull this one out; it is a deep red district, but if they don’t, it will further fix the narrative that 2026 could be a GOP bloodbath.”
Despite the latest poll, previous polling has indicated that the Republican Party is winning in the state. An Impact Social poll of the race showed Van Epps had an 8-point advantage (52 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 700 likely voters from October 16-19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Behn has been the subject of controversy after remarks she made in a February 2020 podcast surfaced last week, in which she said, "I hate this city," referring to Nashville.
"I've been heavily involved in the Nashville mayoral race because I hate this city," she said. "I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music. I hate all the things that make Nashville apparently an 'IT CITY.'"
Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the race as "Likely Republican," while Inside Elections classed the seat as "lean Republican."
What People Are Saying
Aftyn Behn, on X on Sunday: "WE ARE SO CLOSE, HENCE THE RELENTLESS ATTACKS The margins are shrinking, which is why they're getting louder. Channel all of your upset and frustration into talking to voters. This race is winnable, and together, we will flip this seat on December 2nd!"
Executive director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball told Newsweek: "The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on Election Day, and who stays home."
William Lyons, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, previously told Newsweek: "This is an election that might provide some hints for what might occur in the midterms next year. The last midterm cycle in 2022 was disappointing for the Republicans. Recall the anticipated 'red wave' that failed to materialize. If Behn can get within single digits in this district, it would represent a positive sign for Democrats next year."
What Happens Next
The election takes place on December 2, with early voting from November 12 to 26.
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