- College Football
We take a look at all of the ACC’s tiebreaker/clinching scenarios heading into the final weekend of the CFB season.
by Nick SimonNov 28, 2025, 1:00 PM UTC
Getty ImagesThe final weekend of the 2025 college football season is upon us and oh what a beautiful mess we have in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
The ACC has had the most chaotic race towards its conference title game this season as seemingly every week has featured a potential league contender being dragged down to the rest of the pack. The spirit of the old ACC Wheel of Destiny is alive and six schools remain in contention for next Saturday’s league title game in Charlotte.
Below, we’ll go over the myriad of ACC clinching scenarios for this weekend and you can brush up on the league’s tiebreaker policies right here.
SchoolACC RecordOverall RecordVirginia6-19-2Pittsburgh6-18-3SMU6-18-3Georgia Tech6-29-2Miami5-29-2Duke5-26-5Wake Forest4-38-3Clemson4-46-5Louisville4-47-4NC State3-46-5Cal3-46-5Stanford3-54-7North Carolina2-54-7Virginia Tech2-53-8Florida State2-65-6Syracuse1-63-8Boston College0-71-10Virginia Cavaliers
Week 14 Matchup: vs. Virginia Tech, Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
Clinching Scenarios:
-Win-Or SMU loss + Pitt loss + North Carolina win
Virginia is in a win-and-in situation this weekend, which would propel it to its first ACC title game appearance since 2019. The Cavaliers have experienced a dramatic turnaround under fourth-year head coach Tony Elliott this season and are on the verge of just the second 10-win campaign in program history. Their only blemish in league play this season was a 16-9 loss to Wake Forest earlier this month and while they did drop a game to NC State back in September, that was part of a home-and-home agreement between the two schools that did not count towards the ACC standings.
UVA will host arch rival Virginia Tech on Saturday and will have to exorcise some demons in order to punch its ticket to Charlotte. The Hokies have thoroughly dominated this rivalry since 1999 and the aforementioned 2019 season was the last time the Cavs came out on top.
SMU Mustangs
Week 14 Matchup: @ Cal, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
Clinching Scenarios:
-Win-Or Pitt loss + Duke loss + Virginia win + North Carolina win-Or Pitt loss + Duke loss + Virginia win + NC State win + Boston College win + Finish higher than Georgia Tech & Miami in SportSource Analytics ranking-Or Pitt loss + Duke loss + Virginia loss + North Carolina win + Boston College win + Finish higher than Georgia Tech & Miami in SportSource Analytics ranking
SMU also has a simple win-and-in pathway to the ACC title game this weekend and their fate would be left up to several hyper-specific scenarios playing out. Starting this year at 2-2, the Mustangs were seemingly taking a step back after their breakthrough 2024 campaign where they made both the ACC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. However, Rhett Lashlee’s team turned it up once conference play began with their lone setback being a one-point loss to Wake Forest in late October.
They will head out west to Berkeley to face Cal on Saturday and may have the benefit of playing a checked out Golden Bears program that just fired head coach Justin Wilcox earlier in the week.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Week 14 Matchup: vs Miami, Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
Clinching Scenarios:
-Win + Virginia loss-Or Win + SMU loss
Pitt needs to knock off Miami at home on Saturday and should it handle business, then everyone in the yinzer-land will become the biggest fans of both Virginia Tech and Cal later that night. A middling 2-2 start to the season prompted head coach Pat Narduzzi to make a quarterback change from Eli Holstein to Mason Heintschel and they’ve been rolling ever since, winning six of their last seven games.
Something to note is that the last five Pitt-Miami matchups in Pittsburgh have been decided by 10 points or less, with the Panthers last beating the Hurricanes at home in 2017.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Week 14 Matchup: vs. Georgia, Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Clinching Scenarios:
-Pitt win + Virginia loss + SMU loss-Or Miami win + SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia loss + NC State win-Or Miami Win + SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia loss + North Carolina win + Boston College win + Finish higher than Miami & SMU in SportSource Analytics ranking-Or Miami Win + SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia win + NC State win + Boston College win + Finish higher than Miami & SMU in SportSource Analytics ranking
Georgia Tech is done has already finished ACC play and only has its Clean, Old Fashioned Hate rivalry against Georgia to look forward to on Friday. The Jackets’ conference title hopes are out of their control and their easiest path to Charlotte requires Pitt, Virginia Tech, and Cal all triumphing this weekend.
Tech was one of the last undefeated teams in the entire country at 8-0 before late-season losses to NC State and Pitt severely damaged both its ACC title and CFP aspirations. Again, there is still a possibility for the Wramblin’ Wreck to appear in the conference title game, but they’re going to need some help to get there.
Duke Blue Devils
Week 14 Matchup: vs. Wake Forest, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Clinching Scenarios:
-Win + Pitt loss + SMU loss-Or Win + Pitt loss + SMU loss + Virginia loss-Or Win + Pitt loss + Virginia loss + North Carolina win-Or Win + Pitt loss + Virginia loss + NC State win + Finish higher than Miami in SportSource Analytics ranking
That’s right, the ACC has been so chaotic this season that a five-loss Duke team still has a shot at winning the league title. With a new contender being knocked off each week, experts even began gaming out scenarios where a Duke conference title potentially left the league out of the CFP entirely.
The Blue Devils’ path to Charlotte requires a win over Wake Forest on Saturday and a number of outcomes that will benefit them, the simplest being both Miami and Cal winning that day. Duke has not appeared in the ACC title game since 2013 and has not won at least a share of the conference title since Steve Spurrier’s 1989 team.
Miami Hurricanes
Week 14 Matchup: @ Pitt, Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
Clinching Scenarios:
-Win + Virginia loss + Duke loss + SMU win-Or Win + SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia loss + NC State win-Or Win + SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia loss + North Carolina win + Syracuse win-Or Win + SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia loss + North Carolina win + Boston College win + Finish higher than Georgia Tech & SMU in SportSource Analytics ranking-Or Win + SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia win + NC State win + Syracuse win-Or Win + SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia win + NC State win + Boston College win + Finish higher than Georgia Tech & SMU in SportSource Analytics ranking-Or Win + SMU loss + Duke win + Virginia loss + NC State win-Or Win + SMU win + Duke win + Virginia loss + NC State win + Finish higher than Duke in SportSource Analytics ranking
Miami at one point looked like possibly the best team in the entire country and carried a No. 2 ranking into its Friday night showdown against Louisville on October 17. However, a loss in that game and another setback at SMU two weeks later has left the Hurricanes’ postseason aspirations on shaky footing. The biggest controversy on the CFP front is them being ranked behind Notre Dame despite having an identical record with a direct head-to-head victory over the Fighting Irish. An ACC title game victory would help their case tremendously, but a lot needs to happen to make that a reality.
The Hurricanes obviously need to knock off Pitt on Saturday and needs a lot of fortune and good luck to make it to Charlotte. The easiest path is Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Cal all winning their respective games this weekend, but the ‘U’ can also get in through other pathways explained above.
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