New York’s $400 Inflation Checks Won’t End the Squeeze

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In Alaska this fall, roughly 600,000 residents are getting their annual Permanent Fund dividend—$1,000 a head, money many use to cover heating oil, groceries or winter repairs, not souvenirs. The program, funded by oil revenues and in place since the 1980s, has long been America’s most famous experiment in mailing out cash when a resource windfall hits state coffers.

New York is now running its own, far more modest pilot in state-level comfort. Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul has announced that more than 8.2 million "inflation refund” checks—worth between $150 and $400—have been mailed out across the state, a one-time payout of about $2.2 billion secured in the FY 2026 budget and billed as the largest program of its kind in state history.

The money lands just in time for Thanksgiving and Black Friday—and, inevitably, for scammers. Cybercriminals have already blasted out fake texts telling New Yorkers their "inflation refund request has been processed,” demanding bank details to release the funds.

For many households, though, the real question is whether $400 moves the needle at all. Federal Reserve data show that roughly 37 percent of Americans still cannot cover a $400 emergency expense without borrowing, selling something or skipping the bill, a stubborn sign of financial fragility despite inflation easing from its post-pandemic highs. New York’s checks are meant to plug that kind of hole. They are also meant to plug a political one.

Why is this happening?

The inflation refund is the showpiece of Hochul’s self-described "Affordability Agenda,” a package of budget measures that also includes middle-class income-tax cuts, an expanded child tax credit and free school meals for all K-12 students. The final budget dedicates roughly $2–2.2 billion to one-time inflation refunds, financed by higher-than-expected sales-tax revenue generated as prices rose faster than forecast.

Eligibility is tied to 2023 state income-tax returns. According to guidance from the New York State Department of Taxation and Finance and financial explainers, single filers who earned up to $75,000 in 2023 receive $200, while those earning more than $75,000 but not more than $150,000 get $150. Married couples filing jointly receive $400 if they earned $150,000 or less and $300 if their income exceeded $150,000 but not $300,000. Part-year residents and people claimed as dependents on someone else’s return are excluded. There is no application: if you filed an eligible 2023 return, the state simply mails a paper check to the most recent address on file.

Hochul’s team says the main phase of distribution is now complete: 8.2 million checks worth just over $2.0 billion have gone out, with New York City receiving about 3.54 million payments totaling roughly $828.8 million, Long Island about 1.25 million checks and $316.4 million, and the Mid-Hudson region about 924,000 checks and $234.2 million. Smaller regions such as Western New York and the North Country have received hundreds of thousands of checks worth tens of millions of dollars each.

The checks sit alongside other affordability fixes designed to make the state feel less like an economic endurance test. The budget’s free school-meal program is expected to provide breakfast and lunch to roughly 2.7 million students and save families an estimated $1,600 per child each year. The expanded Empire State Child Credit doubles the maximum benefit for young children to $1,000 per child under age four and up to $500 for children aged four to sixteen, reaching an additional 187,000 low-income children. And a set of middle-class tax cuts will, when fully implemented, give more than three-quarters of New York taxpayers their lowest income-tax rates in roughly 70 years.

The political backdrop is simple: New Yorkers are tired of paying New York prices. State and city reports show housing costs and rents have grown faster than incomes over the past decade, with median asking rent in New York City reaching about $3,491 in the second quarter of 2025, up 3.7 percent year-on-year. Census and Tax Foundation analyses find New York has had the largest share of its population moving to other states, losing about 1.1 percent of residents between mid-2022 and mid-2023. The Siena College Research Institute reports that more than 90 percent of New Yorkers say affordability is a serious problem.

Hochul is also governing under fiscal constraints. Independent watchdogs and state officials warn that, despite today’s windfall, New York faces structural budget gaps that could reach well into the tens of billions of dollars over the next few years as temporary federal aid and boom-time tax receipts fade. The one-off nature of the checks is a feature, not a bug: they spend the surplus without committing the state to a permanent entitlement. Politically, they let Democrats say that they see the problem, feel your pain—and have enclosed $400 to prove it.

What is the Right saying?

Conservatives have greeted the envelopes with an eye-roll. A New York Post editorial, reprinted at the right-leaning Climate Change Dispatch, argues that "New Yorkers would be right to feel stiffed when their ‘inflation refund’ checks start arriving in the mail—the measly amount won’t even make a dent in the soaring costs of living under Governor Kathy Hochul,” calling the payments "a blatant gimmick to win over voters ahead of her run for reelection in 2026.”

State Senate Republican Leader Rob Ortt similarly labels the idea "an election gimmick,” asking in a post on X: "Why aren’t we lowering people’s taxes permanently? What are we doing to permanently lower people’s costs at the grocery store, at the gas station, and to heat their homes?” Fiscal hawks note that state spending has risen more than 20 percent since Hochul took office and that budget analysts now project structural deficits of roughly $34 billion over the next three years, arguing that sending billions out the door today is "poorly timed” and "short-sighted.”

What is the Left saying?

The Democratic establishment largely touts the checks as proof that government can still do something tangible. Bronx Borough President Vanessa Gibson praised the initiative as "a clear example of what responsive, people-centered leadership looks like,” saying she applauds Hochul "for putting money back into the pockets of those who need it most.” Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie argues that "these checks will put money back into the pockets of New Yorkers, allowing them to save or spend in a way that makes sense for them.”

More progressive Democrats, though, are unimpressed. Assemblymember Anna Kelles warns that "most people, when they get the check, will have no idea where exactly it came from or where it’s associated with,” calling instead for using the money on long-term investments like zero-emission school buses. State Senator Pat Fahy describes the refunds as "a one-shot,” adding, "I understand the intent, but I think there are better ways to use it,” such as expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit or paying down billions in pandemic-era unemployment-insurance debt. Even sympathetic progressive groups frame the checks as "a little extra financial support this fall”—useful but hardly transformative.

What happens next?

Substantively, the remaining story is mostly logistical and defensive. The "big batch” of inflation checks has already gone out; in the coming weeks the Tax Department will continue to mail smaller rounds as it processes late 2023 returns and cleans up eligibility questions. Residents don’t need to apply, call or upload anything—merely to have filed their taxes and to keep their address current with the state. That simplicity is precisely why scammers are circling: Hochul has warned that "the Tax Department and the IRS do not call or text individuals for personal information” and urged New Yorkers to report phishing attempts built around the refunds.

Politically, the checks are unlikely to be the last word on affordability. As rents and everyday costs continue to outpace many paychecks, expect progressives to push for deeper structural reforms—stronger tax credits, cheaper housing, more public services—while Republicans campaign on permanent tax cuts and spending restraint. The experiment New York is actually running is not just whether $400 helps, but whether voters reward the politicians who mailed it.

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