Who Will Win Tennessee Special Election? What Polls Show ...

By Kate Plummer

Senior US News Reporter

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The Republican Party is likely to win the Tennessee special election, though perhaps by a tighter margin than initially expected, according to latest polls.

Aftyn Behn, a state legislator, is standing against Republican Matt Van Epps to fill a seat left vacant by former Representative Mark Greene, who resigned from the House earlier this year.

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Polls, betting odds and political analysis indicate Van Epps will likely win the seat but there have been signs that support for Behn is growing.

"Public polling in a low-turnout special election around the Holidays is unreliable and inaccurate," a Van Epps spokesperson told Newsweek. "What is clear: there are more Republicans than Democrats in this district and all efforts remain focused on reaching, motivating, and turning out Republicans to vote today or on Tuesday, December 2nd. The smaller number of Democrats in this district are intensely fired up, but as more Republicans tune in and understand the stakes of the race and the craziness of the Democrat nominee, momentum has shifted toward Trump-endorsed Matt Van Epps. He will win on Tuesday, December 2nd."

Behn said in a statement provided to Newsweek: "Matt Van Epps and Washington Republicans are panicking because they know Tennessee families are suffering under their failed economic policies that are raising their costs, while they lower taxes for their billionaire donors. My affordability message—to lower grocery costs, housing costs, and health care costs—is resonating with voters of all political stripes, which is why this race is now tied."

Why It Matters

The election is significant because Republicans have a slim majority in the House of Representatives with 219 seats to the Democrats 213. The resignation of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican, in January will bring that to 218-213. If the party loses a handful of seats in upcoming elections and the midterms, it will affect the Trump administration's ability to push through its agenda.

Meanwhile, Trump carried the district by more than 20 points in the November 2024 election so if Democrats take the seat, or Republicans win it with a narrower margin, it could suggest public ill-will toward the Trump administration, particularly given Democrats performed well in elections across the country on November 4.

What To Know

According to Polymarket, a platform where users can place bets on the likelihood of world events, Van Epps has an 85 percent chance of winning while Behn has a 16 percent of success.

An Impact Research poll from October showed Van Epps up by 8 points (52 percent to 44 percent).

The poll surveyed 700 likely special election voters from October 16 to October 19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

A Workbench Strategies poll also showed Van Epps up 8 points (52 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 400 likely voters from October 15-19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.65 percentage points.

Political analysts have also suggested Van Epps will win the election. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as "Likely Republican." Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the race as "Likely Republican," while Inside Elections classed the seat as "lean Republican."

Behn's campaign has not been without its challenges and she drew scrutiny when remarks she made in a February 2020 podcast reemerged last week where she said "I hate this city," referencing Nashville, Tennessee. "I've been heavily involved in the Nashville mayoral race because I hate this city," she said. "I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music. I hate all the things that make Nashville apparently an 'IT CITY.'"

However, on Wednesday, a poll from Emerson College showed Behn's fortunes were improving. It surveyed 600 likely voters from November 22-24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

What People Are Saying

On Truth Social, Trump called on "all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps."

"You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement," he added, saying that Van Epps would "never let you down."

William Lyons, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, previously told Newsweek: "This is an election that might provide some hints for what might occur in the midterms next year. The last midterm cycle in 2022 was disappointing for the Republicans. Recall the anticipated "red wave" that failed to materialize. If Behn can get within single digits in this district, it would represent a positive sign for Democrats next year."