Call of the Wilde: Montreal Canadiens dominated 5-2 by Ot...

After a successful road trip with two wins out of three, it was back home for the Montreal Canadiens for a back-to-back against Ottawa and Winnipeg.

The Senators and Canadiens are starting on what could be a long rivalry as both of their rebuilds gain steam. The Senators dominated 5-2.

Wilde Horses

There are times when looking at the big picture that losses feel like wins. Naturally, the Canadiens are disappointed with the scoreline, but in one aspect it’s another outstanding night for the future of the franchise.

Juraj Slafkovsky is unquestionably breaking out. He is showing the promise that made him the number one pick overall. Every single moment that he is on the ice is a better moment than we have seen.

Slafkovsky is processing the game so much easier than he did before. While he always looked a step slow in his execution, now he looks fast.

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He is also using his big frame to not only win puck battles, but he’s also learning how to block out. He gets the puck on his left side and leans hard into the right and there is no way with his big reach that the checker can get close to him.

Whether it’s a big moment like a goal in the first period scoring on a tap-in, or it’s a small moment like angling off his checker to leave a scrum successfully, he is doing it all so well.

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Though it was a dropped two points, it was a win to see such an important player of the future bring his future closer to today.

Wilde Goats

It’s so important to play with the lead in sports, and particularly low-scoring sports like hockey with between six and seven goals on average. When the goalie can’t seem to stop early soft shots it’s punishing to the morale and the likelihood of victory.

Samuel Montembeault is having a terrible time getting a feel of the puck early in contests. He’s letting in a shocking amount of long shots. He’s either out of position, or simply missing what an NHL goalie is supposed to stop.

The analytics on the Fabian Zetterlund marker to put Ottawa on the board were as bad as they can be. Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAE) is a heat map of shots fired from what distance with what speed giving a predicted expected rate of save. The GSAE on the first goal against Montembeault was minus .93.

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The worst it can be, of course, is a full minus one. That’s an indicator that a pee wee goalie at the Doug Harvey Arena should have made the save, but minus .93 is pretty close to that number. It’s simply not enough.

When Montembeault had finished allowing four goals on 18 shots, his GSAE was minus 2.55. Analytics felt he should have stopped the Jake Sanderson move out to the corner when he scored along the ice.

They also felt that the rebound to Drake Batherson on the fourth goal on a weak first shot should not have been a rebound at all, but captured for a faceoff.

However, it would be unfair to not also put blame squarely on the Canadiens’ inability to win any one-on-one battles when the Senators were on the attack.

The Canadiens were hemmed into their own zone for much of the night. They felt the heaviness of the Ottawa forechecking at every turn. This led to a massive amount of turnovers. The Senators’ goals were scored in the high-danger areas except one.

Ottawa was full merit for their goals in terms of winning possession, but the shots that they eventually took also need to be stopped a much higher rate than they are when either of the Canadiens two goalies is in the crease.

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It is ironic that during the rebuild when Montreal would have benefited from higher draft picks, Montembeault kept performing above expectations stealing results. He was top-five in the league in GSAE. Now when they need him to be that good, he is bottom-five.

Wilde Cards

In some circles, there is impatience with how the Canadiens’ season is unfolding, and how the rebuild is progressing. The fact is that the Canadiens’ rebuild is the second-fastest basement-to-playoffs move this century. Only the Maple Leafs’ turnaround sparked by Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner has been faster than Montreal’s return to the post-season.

The fact that the roster is thin is a product of that rock bottom moment being only four years ago, and the time it naturally takes to fill it. Of course, a young team that has just come back to life is going to suffer the worst from a rash of injuries. It may even cost a playoff spot losing four players in the top half of the roster for two months.

What needs focus instead of this temporary weakness is that the rebuild continues powerfully. If the well were now dry, and the prospect pool empty, this rebuild would stall. It would indicate the rebuild did not work. It would say it was actually too fast to move up the standings and out of the playoffs.

However, this is not the case. Outstanding prospects are arriving soon. That is a tremendous indication that this rebuild worked extremely well. The depth seen now causing dissatisfaction is a mirage. The eventual depth and talent will compete at the top of the standings.

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When everyone has matured, and provided the prospects hit their expected targets, the top-six is Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Demidov, Michael Hage, and Alexander Zharovsky. It’s a stunningly talented top-six should the two prospects to come hit their marks.

The third line would have Oliver Kapanen, Alex Newhook and Zach Bolduc. The depth would be so stunning that Kirby Dach would be fighting to get off the fourth line. Florian Xhekaj and Jake Evans would round out a forward group without weakness.

This roster looking shallow at the moment is simply what happens when injuries meet a young rebuild. The amount of top-tier talent on the way should soothe any negativity.

The bottom line is in a process that is taking the Buffalo Sabres 15 years, and averages seven years, the Canadiens rebuild, in year four, is a success story envied all around the hockey world.

Embrace the excitement to come.

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Brian Wilde, a Montreal-based sports writer, brings you Call of the Wilde on globalnews.ca after each Canadiens game.