College Football Week 13 Picks Against The Spread

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By Tyler Everett

Sports Betting Editor

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Let's get right into our favorite picks against the spread for the second-to-last weekend of the 2025 college football regular season.

Today's slate includes only two top-25 matchups -- Missouri vs. Oklahoma and USC vs. Oregon -- but there are plenty of intriguing games across the country.

Below, I'll explain why I like the following (all times ET):

1️⃣ Duke (-6.5) vs. North Carolina -- 3:30 p.m. (ACC Network)2️⃣ Nebraska (+7.5) vs. Penn State -- 7 p.m. (NBC)3️⃣ California (-3.5) vs. Stanford -- 7:30 p.m. (ACC Network)

1️⃣ Duke (-6.5) at North Carolina

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network)
Pick: Duke -6.5 (best odds: -115 at bet365)

The Blue Devils (5-5, 4-2 ACC) and the Tar Heels (4-6, 2-4 ACC) are both coming off disappointing two-touchdown losses last Saturday, but Duke has been the much better team for most of this season.

Backing the Devils after their upset losses to UConn and Virginia the last two weeks is risky, but if nothing else, they're clearly the superior offensive team in this matchup.

UNC has mostly been solid on defense over the last five weeks, but Duke should be able to move the ball today and put up points as long as QB Darian Mensah and the offense can take care of the football.

Duke's issues over the last two weeks were mostly on defense. This team gave up 467 yards of total offense to UConn in a stunning loss as 7.5-point favorites two weeks ago. Last week, it allowed over 500 yards of offense to Virginia in a 34-17 loss as a 5.5-point home favorite.

Against QB Gio Lopez and a Carolina offense that is ranked outside the top 100 in passing yards per game (180.3), rushing yards per game (109.2) and points per game (18.7), Duke is poised for a get-right game defensively.

Assuming the Blue Devils -- who are averaging just over 33 points per game this season -- are sharp offensively, they should have little trouble not only winning, but covering, against a Tar Heels squad that has only finished with more than 20 points once in 10 games this season against power four competition.

2️⃣Nebraska (+7.5) at Penn State

Kickoff: 7 p.m. (NBC)
Picks: Nebraska +7.5 (best odds: -108 at FanDuel) + Under 45.5 (-112 at FD)

The Cornhuskers (7-3, 4-3 Big Ten) suffered a stunning 24-6 loss to Minnesota on the road in mid-October, but their other two losses came by a total of 7 points against Michigan and USC.

Penn State (4-6, 1-6 Big Ten) is coming off its best game of the season, a 28-10 win over Michigan State, and it was more than competitive in a heartbreaking loss to Indiana a couple of weeks ago. But I'm not sure why the Nittany Lions should be laying more than a touchdown against anyone, much less a solid team like Nebraska, albeit one with a major question mark under center.

It's worth noting here that Nebraska's ability to keep it close against just about anyone is not a new phenomenon. Last year, the Huskers finished just 7-6 (3-6 Big Ten), but five of the six games they lost were one-score contests.

It's also always tempting to take an underdog and the points in a defensive showdown, and Nebraska-Penn State certainly fits that bill. Both these defenses are among the 25 best in the country, per ESPN's SP+, and neither allows more than 21.1 points per game.

I don't quite see Nebraska winning this game in true freshman quarterback TJ Lateef's second career start in relief of Dylan Raiola, but I do expect the stout Huskers defense to contain a Penn State offense that has struggled both with and without Drew Allar this year. PSU redshirt freshman QB Ethan Grunkemeyer has only thrown for over 150 yards passing once in four starts.

With that in mind, Under 45.5 (-112 at FanDuel) is another tempting play in a battle of offenses starting freshmen at the most important position in the sport.

3️⃣California (-3.5) at Stanford

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network)
Picks: California -3.5 (best odds: -105 at bet365) + Cal TT o24.5 (-115 at DK)

I'm rolling the dice by going with three road teams today, but I feel good about each of these, especially the mismatch at quarterback between Cal's Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Stanford's Elijah Brown.

The latter made his second career start against North Carolina two weeks ago, and he posted solid numbers through the air (27-of-39 passing for 284 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception). But he was also sacked a whopping nine times, which was a big reason why Stanford (3-7, 2-5 ACC) was only able to score 15 points.

Brown is a wild card with plenty of upside as a former four-star recruit, but he's shown little reason to believe he's capable of leading the Cardinal to a big night offensively.

Cal (6-4, 3-3 ACC) has had a strong season, as Sagapolutele has consistently put up big numbers, including in his team's upset win over Louisville two weeks ago. Stanford has struggled against good passing attacks all season, losing 48-20 to Virginia, 34-10 to SMU, 42-7 to Miami and 35-20 to Pittsburgh.

With that in mind, I like Sagapolutele to have another strong performance following his season-best 323-yard night vs. Louisville prior to his team's Week 12 bye. Another tempting play here is Cal to go over its team total of 24.5 points.

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