Democrat Candidate Halves Republican Lead in Alabama

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By Kate Plummer

Senior US News Reporter

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Democratic politician Doug Jones is unlikely to win Alabama's gubernatorial race, but would halve the Republican Party's lead compared to when the party last won the race in 2022, polling suggests.

According to polling by Cygnal, GOP candidate Tommy Tuberville would win the election over his Democratic rival Jones by 19 points. However, this is half the 38-point lead incumbent Republican Governor Kay Ivey received when she won the race in 2022.

Newsweek reached out to representatives for Tuberville and Jones by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.

Why It Matters

Alabama is a solid red state and has voted for Republican candidates in every presidential election since 1980 and has not elected a Democratic governor since 1999.

The polling may concern the GOP if they think they are losing the support of voters, though Tuberville's lead is still strong.

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What To Know

Tuberville, who has served as the senior U.S. senator from Alabama since 2021, launched his gubernatorial bid in May. According to the polling, he is likely to win 53 percent of the vote share while Jones, who served in the U.S. Senate from 2018 to 2021 until Tuberville unseated him, will win 34 percent of the vote share.

Jones entering the race was first reported by online show The Voice of Alabama Politics and it has been confirmed by numerous other local outlets, though Newsweek has not yet independently verified his candidacy.

Tuberville's projected 19-point lead is half the lead Ivey received in 2022 when she won the election against Democratic candidate Yolanda Flowers with 67.4 percent of the vote to Flowers' 29.4 percent. But it would create the same margin of victory as in 2018, when Ivey beat her Democratic challenger Walt Maddox with 59.6 percent of the vote to 40.4 percent.

The polling of 605 likely Alabama voters was conducted between November 12 and 13, 10 days before reports emerged that Jones had entered the race. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.96 percent.

Speaking to Newsweek, Calvin Jillson, a politics professor at Southern Methodist University in Texas said: “A 19 point lead is commanding in any race, but at half the margin that Republican Kay Ivey won by in 2022, it follows a pattern of Democrat overperformance set in the recent governors races in New Jersey and Virginia—and there’s a year to go. So if you had to bet today, you’d bet Tuberville, but both sides will notice and react to the shrinking margins.”

What People Are Saying

During a town hall event in Birmingham on November 8, Doug Jones responded to questions about a gubernatorial run with: “Stay tuned."

Alabama Republican Representative Dale Strong said on The Dale Jackson Show: “[Jones is] begging for punishment, trying to relive past history…I promise you this right here, Tommy Tuberville is fixing to be the next governor of the state of Alabama."