James Fishback's Chances of Beating Trump-Backed Byr...

By Andrew Stanton

Weekend Staff Writer

ShareNewsweek is a Trust Project member

Republican investor James Fishback has announced he is running in the Florida gubernatorial race to succeed Republican Governor Ron DeSantis next year, as polls show him trailing Trump-endorsed Congressman Byron Donalds.

Fishback told Newsweek on Monday that although public polling showed him trailing, his message on AI data centers, property tax and H-1B visas would resonate with Florida voters.

Newsweek reached out to Donalds’ campaign for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Florida, once one of the nation’s premier battlegrounds, has steadily shifted to the right over the past decade. Recent governors have become national figures. DeSantis became a conservative favorite and ran for president in 2024. He is ineligible to run for reelection next November due to term limits, leaving open the governorship in the increasingly conservative state.

So far, only a handful of Republicans have joined the race—Donalds, who represents the Southwest Florida region in Congress and former state legislator Paul Renner have been running. On Monday, Fishback, the CEO of investment firm Azoria, announced he would be joining the race.

...

What To Know

Fishback made his campaign official on Monday, announcing in a video post to X that he was running to “make life more affordable” for Floridians. He has told Newsweek that he believes many Floridians “don’t like” the direction the state could head in with regards to affordability, overdevelopment and AI data centers. Fishback has garnered a notable social media following and has been supportive of the Trump administration.

“Byron has been in the race for nine months and he’s still losing to undecided,” he said. “That’s because he doesn’t have a coherent vision to preserve what Governor DeSantis has built.”

However, public polls show Donalds with an early lead over Fishback.

A Victory Insights survey from earlier this month showed Donalds with 45 percent support. Renner held less than three percent support, while both Fishback and Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins both held one percent support. Notably, it showed that just under 50 percent of respondents were still undecided about who they would support.

The poll surveyed 600 likely Republican primary election voters from November 11-13.

A survey from the pollster The American Promise showed 43 percent of respondents planning to vote for Donalds, two percent supporting Renner, one percent backing Collins and less than one percent backing Fishback, reported Florida Politics.

It surveyed 800 likely Republican primary voters from November 17-19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.

AI data centers are one area of difference between candidates. Donalds has said he would invest in AI as governor, but Fishback opposes the construction of AI data centers.

“It’s not left versus right. It’s right versus wrong. It is wrong to build monstrous an AI data center that can double or triple your electric bill when families are already struggling under the weight of affordability,” Fishback said. It’s wrong to do something that threatens our natural environment and our natural water supply. We have beautiful aquifers and springs here in Florida, and AI data centers would threaten that.”

He said internal polling showed a neck-and-neck race, but those polls have not been released.

Trump has endorsed Donalds, while DeSantis has not made an endorsement.

Florida was once a swing state—backing former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. But Trump carried it in each of his three wins, including by 13 points over former Vice President Kamala Harris last November. Trump’s inroads with Hispanic voters, as well as an influx in conservative retirees, have been attributed with the GOP’s strong performances in the state as of late.

Prediction-market platform Kalshi's betting odds on Monday gave Donalds a 76 percent and Fishback a 12 percent chance of winning the primary.

What People Are Saying

Ben Galbraith, senior pollster at Victory Insights, wrote in the poll’s executive summary: “For now, Donalds is rolling steadily towards the Governor’s Mansion, with no other candidates achieving statistically significant relevance. Renner has already been snubbed by DeSantis, Collins is at 1% and is unlikely to run without DeSantis’ blessing, and Fishback is occupying a somewhat fringe lane that primarily exists online. Unless something major changes, Donalds has a clear path to victory.”

Anthony Sabatini, a member of Lake County, Florida’s commission, wrote on X: “Fishback will be a great Governor & is true America First His opponent Byron Donalds is a corrupt politician whose stock trades in Congress & has pledged to protect the companies that are replacing American labor with 3rd world Visa labor.”

Journalist Jordan Schachtel wrote in a post on X: “This is a nice ad and I agree with many of the sentiments expressed here. However, James *does not* have the endorsement of the governor (whose coat tails he is attempting to latch onto) and he has *zero* proven accomplishments to lead a massive state like Florida.”

What Happens Next

Candidates will spend the coming months making their cases to voters about why they are the strongest to lead the state. Democratic candidates include former Representative David Jolly and Mayor of Orange County Jerry Demings. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid Republican, so Republicans are favored to hold the seat.

Request Reprint & LicensingSubmit CorrectionView Editorial & AI Guidelines