By Kate PlummerShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberThe likelihood that Vice President JD Vance will become the Republican Party's nominee for the 2028 presidential election is declining, according to polls.
According to polling by McLaughlin & Associates, Vance's net lead over President Donald Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr.—in a hypothetical contest between them and other Republican figures—has decreased in recent months.
Newsweek reached out to representatives for Vance and Trump Jr. by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.
Why It Matters
Because of the 22nd Amendment in the U.S. Constitution, which was added in 1951, presidents can only serve two terms in the White House. So, Trump will need to pass the baton to another GOP candidate in 2028.
While neither Vance or other GOP figures have announced their candidacy for 2028's race, Vance, the current vice president, has been widely tipped as a potential candidate and natural heir to continue Trump's agenda. But if his popularity is falling, this could signal that there has been a backlash to the Trump administration.
What To Know
According to the polling, in August Vance had a 20-point lead over Trump Jr., who is in second place, with 36 percent of the vote share to Trump Jr.'s 16 percent. This lead actually increased to 28 points in September.
However, in October, his lead decreased and while Vance still enjoyed 38 percent of the vote share, Trump Jr.'s 20 percent of the share meant that just a few weeks ago Vance had a narrower 18-point lead. And in November, this lead decreased again to 10 points, with Vance on 34 percent and Trump Jr. on 24 percent.
The survey was conducted among 439 voters between November 17 and 24.
It comes amid negative polling for Trump. A poll last month by The Economist/YouGov found Trump’s approval rating at its lowest level since he returned to office in January. Thirty-nine percent of respondents approved of the job he is doing, and 58 percent disapproved, a net approval rating of -19 points.
Speaking to Newsweek, Mark Shanahan who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K. said Trump's approval rating was affecting Vance. He said: "Polls are pretty meaningless this far out from the election, but the issue for Vance is that he's so closely tied to this Administration. For the moment, he has to be in lockstep with the president. If he's not, he simply isn't doing the job he has been elected to fulfill. So, while Trump's polling is languishing, Vance suffers."
However, other polling puts Vance in a healthier position.
YouGov conducted a survey from November 6 to 9 that showed Vance with 42 percent of the vote. Trump Jr. came in distant second at 13 percent. The survey included 2,172 U.S. adult citizens and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Meanwhile, polling by Echelon Insights carried out from October 16 to 20 showed Vance finishing first with 46 percent of the vote share. The survey included 1,010 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Aside from Vance and Trump Jr., other figures are rumored to be running for the role. An Axios report earlier this month suggested Texas Senator Ted Cruz as a possibility. He responded to the Axios report in an interview with Fox News, saying: "Reporters are going to write headlines that get clicks and get eyeballs. I got a job. It’s representing 31 million Texans and it's fighting every day for 31 million Texans."
Shanahan added: "Other potential candidates—even those only under consideration because of their name, not their skill set—can start to build their individual political and policy identity. A year before the midterms, this may give an advantage. But that may well disappear as the presidential primaries get closer."
What People Are Saying
Asked which Republicans could run for office in 2028, President Donald Trump told reporters in October: "We have great people…We have JD, obviously, the vice president is great. I think [Secretary of State] Marco's [Rubio] great. I think, I'm not sure if anybody would run against those. I think if they ever formed a group, it would be unstoppable. I really do. I believe that. I would love to do it. I have my best numbers ever."
JD Vance told Fox News' Sean Hannity earlier this month: "I would say that I've thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections. But I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now, and my job is to do it."
Donald Trump Jr. in March on a report that he was considering a 2028 run: "I accurately predicted that my buddy JD would be an instant power player in national GOP politics, so your theory is that I worked my [expletive] off to help get him the VP nomination because I want to run for president in 2028? Are you [expletive] retarded? I'm actually glad you're printing this [expletive] though because at least now the rest of the press corps will see how [expletive] your 'sources' are and how easily you're played by them. Congrats, moron."
What Happens Next
Most candidates do not announce presidential runs until after the midterm elections, so whether Vance, Trump Jr. and other figures run will become clearer then. Meanwhile, there is also speculation about which Democratic politicians will run for president.
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