Every NFL team ranked by their Super Bowl chances at Thanksgiving

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Here’s our tier list of NFL contenders at Thanksgiving.

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Things today could get a little sporty around the Thanksgiving table.

We are here to help.

Let’s face it: You don’t want to see Thanksgiving derailed by awkward, tense conversations that do not get anywhere. So the moment Uncle Ricky starts veering down a journey into his medical history, or Aunt Lisa starts talking about tariffs, drop these rankings into the conversation and yell about the Packers instead.

We’ve broken up all 32 teams into a few different tiers, and for the teams truly in the playoff hunt, we’ve ranked them as well.

Happy Holidays.

The “better luck next year” tier

• Arizona Cardinals
• Atlanta Falcons
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Cleveland Browns
• Las Vegas Raiders
• Miami Dolphins
• Minnesota Vikings
• New Orleans Saints
• New York Jets
• Tennessee Titans
• Washington Commanders

If you are a fan of one of these teams … go outside. Touch some grass. Then when you come back inside, fire up the college film and start watching prospects.

The “with a little help” tier

Teams in this tier could conceivably make a run at a Super Bowl, but they will need some help. Whether that means getting healthy, or getting good, remains to be seen.

20. Carolina Panthers

Inconsistency, thy name is Panthers. Every week is a new adventure with Carolina. One moment they’re beating the Cowboys or Packers, the next they’re coming out flat against the Saints. This team is still in building mode, and to that end sitting at 6-6 is a bit of a triumph. Realistically though, this team is simply too unreliable to make the playoffs without a dramatic collapse from someone else.

19. Dallas Cowboys

It’s a small miracle that the Cowboys are still alive, but they need a very big miracle in order to make it to the postseason. There’s no chance they’ll catch the Eagles in the NFC East, meaning it will require a late push for the wild card is the only path forward. Uneven performance has been Dallas’ downfall, and there have simply been too many unforced errors this season.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers

A similar scenario to last season is playing out in Pittsburgh. The Steelers started the year on the front foot, held the division lead, but coughed that up down the stretch to the Baltimore Ravens. Now, Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a left wrist injury that held him out of last week’s loss to the Chicago Bears, and with two games against the Ravens coming up, the Steelers could slide out of the playoffs.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars won on the road in overtime last week, something you never apologize for in the NFL.

Expect maybe when it comes against Jacoby Brissett and the 2025 Arizona Cardinals.

It remains hard to make heads or tails of this year’s Jaguars. But with two games against the Titans and a game against the Jets, they have some more wins on their schedule. How they handle the two games against Indianapolis, as well as their Week 16 date with the Broncos in Denver, likely tell the more complete story.

16. Chicago Bears

Bears fans will bristle, and this might feel far too low — but the truth is that the Bears have largely coasted against one of the most pathetic schedules in the NFL. Narrowly beating a Mason Rudolph-led Steelers is the most impressive win on their resume, and the rest has been against some of the sorriest teams in the NFL. That makes it difficult to buy in on them to be a legitimate threat this season.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Things did not get any easier on the injury front for the Buccaneers, now that Baker Mayfield is dealing with an AC sprain in his left shoulder.

Tampa Bay likely does enough to hold on in the division, but with the injuries mounting and now Mayfield dealing with one as well, it is hard to see the Buccaneers making a deep run unless the trainers work some magic.

14. Houston Texans

This is a title-winning defense. Period.

Whether the Texans offense can hold up their end of the bargain is the question. Perhaps a return of C.J. Stroud to the starting lineup after he clears concussion protocol will help on that front.

13. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were a preseason dark horse for the Super Bowl, but that went down the drain with Rashawn Slater’s injury. This team has so much talent that they could be a legitimate threat in the postseason, but it’s going to take one hell of a coaching job by Jim Harbaugh and Co. to find a way to mitigate injuries and get in.

The “we can see the vision” tier

The teams in this group have reasons their fans can believe. But translating those reasons into a Super Bowl is the next step.

12. Kansas City Chiefs

The stereotypical zombie of the NFL, you just cant kill the Chiefs. Despite a down season with myriad missteps, the Chiefs still find themselves in a position where they can make the playoffs. Andy Reid is the best head coach in the league when it comes to developing a winning strategy, and the staff is stacked. This is starting to feel all too familiar that the Chiefs are going to make another run.

11. Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are banged up along the offensive line right now.

And we’ve seen in recent weeks what that does to Jared Goff.

Goff was solid when pressured through the first half of the season. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus Goff posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 73.3% when pressured during that stretch, which ranked fifth in the NFL among qualified passers.

Over the past three weeks? Goff has an ACP of just 45%, ranking him 31st out of 34 qualified passers. Only Davis Mills, Tyrod Taylor, and Shedeur Sanders are lower.

That is something Detroit needs to fix, and fast.

10. Buffalo Bills

The Bills can be great on any given Sunday, but their Sundays are coming up less frequently. Josh Allen’s brilliance has been pushed to its limit, and the glaring weaknesses this team has on both sides of the ball are starting to show. Without a top-tier receiver or an elite secondary it’s been tough to see which of the playoff teams would struggle against the Bills.

9. San Francisco 49ers

What Kyle Shanahan has done in San Francisco this season is nothing short of a coaching masterclass. No team in the NFL has been managed injuries than the Niners while remaining competitive, and when surrounded by a staff the caliber of San Francisco’s the team is as scary as any in the NFL. The lingering question is whether the 49ers have the top end talent left to compete against some of the best teams in the league.

8. Green Bay Packers

The Packers have the potential to win the Super Bowl, with an emphasis on potential. This team has all the tools on paper, but oftentimes we just haven’t seen it translate to the field -- with embarassing losses to the Panthers and Browns, while also narrowly escaping against the Giants and Cardinals.

When everything is going Jordan Love’s way he looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Throw in a little adversity and he begins to get desperate with his playmaking and forces unnecessary passes. In a lot of ways this feels like a team building for the future and trying to compete at the same time. We’ll need to see if Green Bay can reconcile that in the playoffs.

7. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens might be the most dangerous team in this tier, because we know what they’re capable of on the top end. Winners of five straight, Baltimore has the ability to beat anyone in the NFL due to Lamar Jackson’s brilliance and Derrick Henry’s ability — but underachievement has been the story of their season. They’re leading the exceptionally weak NFC North at 6-5, but again, this team should be so much better. If they can find their groove when the games matter they’ll be a very difficult team to face, with the potential to be a major spoiler for top-end teams in the NFL.

6. Indianapolis Colts

After a tremendous start, some concerns are growing in Indianapolis.

Take last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. Losing in overtime, on the road, to Patrick Mahomes and company is usually not a cause for worry. But dig a little deeper and you see the concerns. After a touchdown drive in the third quarter, Indianapolis went three-and-out on each of their drives to close out the game. That includes three in regulation and one more in overtime.

Plus, look at the upcoming schedule. During their 8-2 stretch to open the season, Indianapolis secured wins over the Dolphins, the Raiders, the Falcons, the Cardinals, and the Titans twice. Things also get tougher from here. Indianapolis has two games against both the Jaguars and the Texans (teams that are closing on Indianapolis in the AFC South) as well as games against the 49ers and Seahawks.

So you can see why there are some worried faces in Indianapolis.

5. New England Patriots

Resident Patriots homer checking in.

Again, as I’ve said before, I would love to make the case for New England as the top team in these rankings. They’ve already surpassed my wildest expectations this season by reaching ten wins, and with games against the Giants, Jets, and Dolphins remaining 13 wins is truly in sight.

But the schedule certainly helped them this year, as New England’s strength of schedule is .346 (lowest in the league) and their strength of victory clocks in at .342. That’s not the most-impressive resume. They do face the Bills (at home) and the Ravens in Baltimore down the stretch, which will be two more occasions for the Patriots to show what they can do.

But with players on the offensive line injured, including first-round pick Will Campbell, things might get tougher for Drake Maye.

The “start researching flights” tier

We’ve now reached the top tier of teams.

We would not advise booking Super Bowl accommodations just yet. The economy is what it is, we work in DIGITAL MEDIA after all so we might understand that more than most.

But maybe set up a price tracker on your preferred booking website of choice …

4. Denver Broncos

The Broncos have become tough to ignore. There’s some fair criticism to level at Denver with Bo Nix having three quarters of mediocrity and then a hero fourth each week, or that the strength of schedule has been soft — but you cant ignore a team with the No. 6 ranked pass defense, and No. 3 ranked run defense. This team is brutal to score on, allowing just 17.5 points per game — and that’s allowed for the game to be close enough to win any contest.

3. Seattle Seahawks

Yes, they lost to the Rams two weeks ago and coughed up a lead in the NFC West in the process

But even with Sam Darnold throwing four interceptions in that game, Seattle still had a chance to win the game on the final play. While a long field goal try from Jason Myers never had a chance, the fact the Seahawks were even in a position to win that game speaks volumes.

Seattle’s defense is playing very well, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a shot at NFL immortality, and the Seahawks have games against Minnesota and Atlanta the next two weeks to get ready for a fascinating closing stretch that includes a rematch with the Rams, as well as a season finale with the 49ers.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

When they are at their best, the Philadelphia Eagles look like one of the best teams in the league.

But last week against the Dallas Cowboys, particularly the second half, was not the Eagles at their best. After racing out to a 21-0 lead Philadelphia was outscored 24-0 over the final 30-plus minutes, losing to their bitter rivals in a shocking turn of events.

That loss had the feel of the Eagles staring at a fork in the road: If they take one fork, the Eagles the forge ahead, learn from the mistakes and conservative nature on the offensive side of the ball, and roll to Super Bowl LX.

If they take the other, the wheels completely come off and this team mirrors the 2023 version that went 1-5 down the stretch to cough up the No. 1 seed in the conference.

We’ll see which path they choose.

1. Los Angeles Rams

It’s growing increasingly difficult to find an Achilles heel with the Rams. In a season where every team is struggling to find consistency, Los Angeles is just hitting its stride. Matthew Stafford is having a career year, and one that could wind up being MVP-worthy. The receiving game is hitting in a big way with the addition of Davante Adams. The defense is stepping up, and the teams has a Super Bowl caliber QB in Sean McVay. Right now the Rams are the most reliable team in the NFL and deserve their flowers.

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