By Kate PlummerShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberTexas Republicans could now lose seats in the November 2026 midterms, not gain them.
Because of a ruling on redistricting in the state, the party is unlikely to pick up new seats from redrawn electoral maps.
Meanwhile, according to unrelated analysis by political scientist Larry Sabato, the party may find it more difficult to keep hold of two seats it won in the November 2024 election as they are shifting toward the Democratic Party.
Newsweek reached out to the Texas Republican Party to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.
Why It Matters
There has been a national redistricting fight in which Republicans and Democrats alike have attempted to draw new state maps to impact the results of future votes.
...Redistricting could have a major impact on upcoming elections, including the November 2026 midterms, which will affect the balance of power in Congress and, in turn, Trump's ability to carry out his agenda. Republicans have a narrow majority of 219 to 214 in the House of Representatives, so if they lose a handful of seats it could have a huge impact on the last two years of Trump's term.
What To Know
On Tuesday, federal judges ruled that Texas cannot use a new Republican-drawn congressional map, ruling that there was "substantial evidence" showing "that Texas racially gerrymandered." The map was expected to deliver five additional seats to the GOP.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has said he will file an appeal with the Supreme Court and ask for a stay of the order.
Speaking to Newsweek, Mark Shanahan who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K. said while the Texas GOP had hit a roadblock with their redistricting efforts, "there is every chance the Supreme Court with its conservative supermajority will overturn the lower court's decision."
Meanwhile, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a forecaster that tracks elections across the country, shifted two of Texas' congressional races away from Republicans on Wednesday. Those seats are the 15th District held by Republican Monica De La Cruz, which was changed from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, and the 34th District, a seat held by Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, which shifted from Leans Republican to Toss-Up.
However, The Cook Political Report, another forecaster, suggests TX-15 is Likely Republican and TX-34 is Lean Republican.
Shanahan said: "In terms of the South Texas districts now no longer seen as safe Republican holds, these were traditionally Democrat seats, but voted Republican in 2024, largely because Trump picked up a stronger share of the Hispanic vote. At the moment the president is unpopular due to his relative lack of economic success and the taint of Epstein. Meanwhile the clamp down on immigration by his Border Force has unsurprisingly drawn particular ire in the Hispanic community.
If Republican candidates are to hold those seats and suburban Districts around Texas's Democratic city strongholds, they may have to break ranks with the president and his acolyte, Governor Greg Abbott and campaign far more intensely on local issues, especially affordability."
What People Are Saying
Paxton said in a statement about Texas's redistricting: "I will be appealing this decision to the Supreme Court of the United States, and I fully expect the Court to uphold Texas’s sovereign right to engage in partisan redistricting."
What Happens Next
Texas is appealing the redistricting ruling.
Other states are considering mid-decade redistricting, including Colorado, Florida, Illinois and Maryland.
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